On March 6, I predicted that the worldwide total number of confirmed cases would reach 1 million by March 28. The prediction used a doubling number of four days. Today is April 2 and the total number of confirmed cases reached 1 million. So my prediction was off by five (5) days.
Critically speaking, the prediction was accurate in predicting that we would be facing a crisis. And that is true. It shouldn’t really be a surprise. It’s just following its course.
However, the fact that the rate has slowed gives me hope that our individual common action, social distancing, is making a real and measurable difference. A difference of five days.