I forked data from Tom White’s github, and graphed it,Tom White Covid19 database I formatted the data, and baselined the timeline to January 1, 2020. UK Covid 19 Data
Monthly Archives: March 2020
I forked data from the New York times, and graphed it,NY Times Covid19 database I formatted the data, and baselined the timeline to January 1, 2020. A C D, F, G and H I and K L M N O, P, and R S, T, and U V and W
I forked data from the New York times, and graphed it,NY Times Covid19 database I formatted the data, and baselined the timeline to January 1, 2020. This is what the Florida dataset looks like when input to Maxima: (%i37) Florida; (%o37) [[2020-03-01, 2], [2020-03-02, 2], [2020-03-03, 3], [2020-03-04, 3], [2020-03-05, […]
In my post of Doubling Numbers – part 3 I predicted one million cases worldwide on March 28, 2020 — today. Well, I was wrong — there are 660,000 confirmed cases and 30K dead. That prediction was made on March 7, twenty one days ago when there were 21K cases. […]
I downloaded the data from the New York Times for confirmed cases covid19 state data from March 1 thru March 26, 2020. Then I plotted this in Maxima. (%i14) plot2d([discrete,NYlog],[title,"NY confirmed cases"], [xlabel,"March 2020 date"],[ylabel,"log souls"], [png_file,"nylog.png"]) (%o14) [/home/nicks/maxout.gnuplot, /home/nicks/nylog.png] (%o14) loveny.mac From eyeballing the graph, one can see that […]
The logistic equation is another model at which the finite population size starts limiting the process. As the number of cases approaches the population size, the rate slows. (%i8) diff(f(x),x)=gamma*f(x)*(G-f(x)); d (%o8) -- (f(x)) = (G - f(x)) f(x) gamma dx Here G is the total population size. As the […]
After a month of indecision, action has come. By restricting peoples’ movement and association, transmission of the virus can be delayed, or stopped. Makes sense in theory — the rapid growth of cases will peak and then subside. That’s the idea. But what does that mean practically? From a numerical […]
When thinking about the new reality of the COVID19 virus, a lot of things roll through my brain. I think about the quote that Jeff Goldblum says in Jurassic park about the dinosaurs — “Life will not be contained. Life breaks free. It expands to new territories, crashes through barriers, […]
In my post on February 10 I predicted that there would be a million cases of coronavirus by March 1. Today, March 6, I am looking at the number of cases outside China reported as 2400 on February 24 and 1200 on February 20. One can use these values to […]
In my post on February 10 I predicted that there would be a million cases of coronavirus by March 1. It was a simplistic back-of-the-envelope calculation. On the same day, Donald Trump made the prediction, “Now, the virus that we’re talking about having to do — you know, a lot […]