On March 21, 2020 I predicted 1 million cases by April 17 in New York State using a doubling number of 4 days. Doubling – flattening the curve – part 4 Thankfully, through the use of social distancing, sheltering in place, we were able to flatten the curve. I would like to emphasize the incredible achievement of “We the People”. Because we could communicate as a society freely, because we could work together, and because we voluntarily do the right thing, we were able to flatten the curve and fight this virus with the only tool we have/had available. I would be amiss if I did not acknowledge the contributions of State, Local, and the Federal Government. However, giving credit where credit is due, it is our work, us, “We the People” that has made the difference here.
So where now? Today, New_York state has a 21.66995 day doubling number, and 242,817 confirmed cases.
(%i2) covid_million(c):=((6*log(10)-log(c))*4)/0.69 (6 log(10) - log(c)) 4 (%o2) covid_million(c) := ---------------------- 0.69 (%o2) covid19.mac (%i3) covid_million(242817)*21.66995/4,numer; (%o3) 44.45314518369369
So the million day cases is now 44 days from today. That will be Wednesday, June 3, 2020.
That is still an awfully big number. So, much more work needs to be done. When the going gets tough, the tough get going.
An assumption that is worth mentioning again, is that the doubling number stays constant. If it doesn’t and it shortens, then the date will be sooner. If it continues to lengthen, then it might never reach a million cases. It might even be that the virus will die out. However, it is prudent to work with the data we have, the reality that we are facing today.
I have ranked U.S. counties by their current doubling number US County sorted doubling numbers. This can be used a leading indicator for “hot spot” or trouble. It is interesting that todays (April 20) worst (at 1.14 days) is Ohio__Marionwhich is the location of a hot spot at a correctional facility — Marion Star article